Written by:
Professor Amelia Hadfield, Founder and Director of the Centre for Britain and Europe, Director of CIFAL Surrey, Associate Vice President of External Engagement
Meg Ward, CBE Communications and Public Affairs Officer, Politics & IR Graduate, 2025
With the much-anticipated devolution decision having finally landed, there is another urgent matter that Surrey should now shift its focus to. Much of Surrey faces serious flood risks: driven by climate change alterations exerting environmental pressures, including upon the county’s many rivers, some of which are already struggling to cope. Flooding causes extensive damage to landscapes, shorelines, houses and businesses, leading to significant financial hardship for Surrey residents. With the focus on the new East-West split, decision-makers now face a huge challenge in rebuilding an evenly-distributed governance structure. This means a focus on urgent issues, including the very real risks posed by Flooding in Surrey. Are they up for it?
Simply to Amplify?
This is a once in a generation reform, and our vision is clear: stronger local councils in charge of all local services, equipped to drive economic growth, improve local public services, and lead and empower their communities.
Earlier this week, Steve Reed, Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government announced that Surrey’s councils and boroughs would be dissolved, and merged into two new unitary bodies. This change ends the two-tier system, and establishes two new single-tier unitary councils. As Mr Reed explained: “I have decided to move forward with implementation of two new unitary councils in Surrey – East Surrey Council and West Surrey Council – subject to Parliamentary approval.”
Mr Reed went on to clarify his decision by suggesting that the two unitary council proposal is “more likely to be financially sustainable” and continued by saying that “Putting Surrey’s local authorities on a more sustainable footing is vital to safeguarding the services its residents rely on, as well as investing in their futures.”
The Devolution and Local Government Reorganisation (LGR) decision will understandably dominate the agenda for Surrey’s Councils; the demands are understandably radical. The whole point of this reorganisation is to render Surrey – both east and west – more effective and efficient in tackling a whole range of social and environmental issues. Which means prioritising the county’s ability to grasp, tackle and implement mitigation strategies to reduce the risk of climate change and flooding in the county.
Flood Risks and Challenges
Climate change, specifically flooding, poses a serious risk to around 25,000 homes in Surrey due to already occurring instances where various rivers, such as the River Thames, Wey and Mole, have already burst their banks or reached dangerously high levels. This number is projected to double in the next 25 years, putting many more residents at risk.
In January last year, a Chertsey resident spoke to the BBC about the lack of help she received after the River Thames broke its banks and ultimately flooded her home. She shared that upon contacting Runnymede Borough Council for assistance with providing sandbags, they told her that they had none and to phone 999. Surrey County Council also told her they could not help. A similar story was told by a resident in Runnymede, who explained that water was up to his knees in his garden, but no one from the council or Environment Agency had been out to see him.
These floods are expected to continue, and an interactive map projecting Surrey’s conditions by 2050 underscores just how serious the situation could become. The wider impacts of climate change are predicted to cause a potential seven-metre rise in sea levels, meaning that by 2050, some parts of Surrey could be entirely submerged. The map paints a worrying picture for areas such as Hampton Court, Walton-on-Thames, and Shepperton, all of which are shown to be under water. This suggests that events like the 2024 floods in Chertsey could become far more frequent in the years ahead.
The main concern is that after LGR implementation, attention will turn to the May 2026 elections and the ensuring shadow period, which will run until April 2027. During this 11-month period, a shadow authority will be established to oversee the transition. However, there is a risk that important local issues, such as flooding, could be sidelined as resources and focus are redirected toward managing the reorganisation and supporting the shadow authority in its temporary functions.
Flood Prevention Strategies
Surrey’s current flood-prevention strategy includes both natural and engineered flood alleviation schemes aimed at managing and mitigating flood impacts. The guiding document, Surrey Local Flood Risk Management Strategy 2017–2032, places responsibility on Surrey County Council (SCC) to uphold the Flood and Water Management Act 2010. While the strategy is comprehensive and clearly sets out the county’s vision and objectives, concerns remain about how flood prevention and management will be maintained during the forthcoming local government reorganisation over the next two years.
Additional concerns have emerged when examining flood prevention at a national level. The government’s goal of delivering 1.5 million new homes by the end of this Parliament has raised questions about whether vital environmental and climate considerations might be overlooked. This worry is heightened by the fact that one in 13 new-build homes has been constructed in high-risk flood zones, a trend that could continue if not addressed as part of the government’s housing plans. Research by the insurance company Aviva further highlights the scale of the issue, identifying London and the East of England as areas facing particularly high levels of flood risk.
Over the next 30 years, Surrey and its residents face an extremely high risk of flooding. Following the recent reorganisation of local government, the county’s two new unitary councils should prioritise developing a revised and updated climate change policy. Surrey’s rivers aren’t going anywhere, which is why effective flood prevention and risk management must sit at the very top of the new councils’ agenda, demanding a clear and sustained focus from both new strategic authorities on tackling climate change more broadly, and on protecting the Thames and Wey in particular.
Next Steps
So, what next? Steve Reed, Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government outlined in his announcement first that simplifying local government ‘ensures a strong foundation for devolution’, and second that the new unitary authorities – with the relevant functions held at the county level – “can continue to be delivered on that geographic footprint where possible”. Mr Reed does not however mention on of the most critical areas facing the overall geography binding both east and west Surrey: relentless climate change pressures, but specifically the unpredictability and damaging nature of floods. Support to identify, mitigate and rework Surrey’s specific flood prevention mechanisms, against a wider updated climate change strategy is absolutely job one, in terms of the governance of Surrey’s geography. A reminder therefore to the hard-working civil servants and elected councillors in this exceptionally busy period: we are all invested in a successful Surrey, and help is on hand from a wide range of stakeholders from across the county, including from your partners at the University of Surrey.
