Ian Roulstone, in collaboration with John Norbury (Oxford), has an article on the Huffington Post Blog on 19 July, giving the mathematics behind the heat wave.

A heat wave in the UK is usually measured by temperatures reaching in excess of 30 degrees Celsius for more than a week.  The current heat wave – the longest spell of hot weather in seven years – is welcomed by most after one of the most prolonged winters on record; but if temperatures remain high, health risks and environmental hazards, such as crop failure, wildfires, and water shortages, become a real concern. So how good are we at predicting heat waves? Are they related to global warming? And do we know when it will rain again? Mathematics helps us to answer these questions.  For details see the full article here.