David Lloyd leads a team of Surrey mathematicians engaged with analysis and modelling of Covid-19

David Lloyd is leading up a range of activity devoted to data analysis and modelling of Covid-19: (1) Steve Falconer (PhD student working with Dave and Naratip Santitissadeekorn) is taking time out from his PhD to help the Royal College of GPs (RCGP), Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC), with their weekly reporting of communicable and respiratory disease. (2) Dave has been awarded an IAA grant to produce short-term GP practice-level forecasts for Covid-19, using ideas from urban crime forecasting, and they plan to extend these forecasts to include seasonal flu in the upcoming winter season. This work is a team effort and includes Naratip, Sylvain Delahaies, Sean Cleator, and Steve Falconer. (3) With NPL, Dave is looking at analysing the RCGP RSC’s data on mental health. This part is joint work with Dr. Agnieszka Lemanska (Surrey/NPL), Dr Nadia Smith (NPL), Dr Spencer Thomas (NPL), and Dr Valerie Livina (NPL). The figures below show some data and forecasting that is hot off the press.

A plot of mean forecast and confirmed cases, computed by the Surrey Team.
This figure shows that the filter is tracking from the data that the reproduction has just dropped below one in the last couple of weeks.